Peak Value and the Hall of Fame by Dan Coomer

In looking at the 134 players I calculated that they averaged 17.9 seasons. Now I would like to think if a guy played 18 seasons we would look at his whole career and not just "cherry pick" a few select seasons. For the purposes of this paper I decided that if a player were active for at least 15 seasons he would be evaluated for career value not just peak. My reasoning for this is that the best reason for looking at peak value is for players who did not play long enough to creating a sufficient body of work to be directly compared to career value players. I also defined the peak as a player’s best five consecutive seasons. I will leave it to others to research the players they think who should be evaluated on peak value instead of career value even though they had full careers.

The evaluation tool I used was Lee Sinin’s Runs Created Against Average (RCAA). The numbers I used were through 2003, as I don’t have this year’s SBE yet. I did not consider defensive value at all. First, the metrics for it is shaky at best. Second, I am not a professional researcher with sufficient time to devote to the topic. RCAA is not cursory or superficial, but it is not an end-all in and of itself. I first used it to see what it considered a sure fire HoFer. Then I measured the performance of the sub-15 year HoFers against that standard.

In using RCAA against all players I quickly discovered that if you have 500+ RCAA you are virtually assured of election. Of the 46 retired players who have been on an HoF ballot there are only three retired players with 500+ RCAA who are not in the HoF: Pete Browning (19^th Century), Dick Allen (legendary clubhouse cancer), and Shoeless Joe (famed Black Sox and now on the ineligible list). As an aside there are 14 players north of 500 RCAA who are either active or who have not appeared on a HoF ballot yet.

I decided to use this 500 RCAA figure to eliminate players from the peak value study. These are players who are among the very best to have played. I also made one other significant adjustment to the list. I decided that if a player as of 1990 was still in the top 10 at his position for RCAA he should also be considered on career value not peak. The 1990 cut-off was to keep most active players out and to avoid the homer happy 1990’s. The last adjustment I made was for "excuses". These are players for whom the voters probably said "…If it hadn’t of been for …". Typical excuses are injury/illness, World War II, and the Jackie Robinson thing.

Okay what do we have? There are 23 position players who are in the HoF who did not play at least 15 seasons. Roughly 17% of all positional HoFers played less than 15 seasons. Of these 23 players four of them have 500+ RCAA: Billy Hamilton (812), Joe DiMaggio (702), Hank Greenberg (549), and Elmer Flick (512). DiMaggio and Greenberg also lost three years to WWII. "Slidin" Billy Hamilton was one of the greatest players of the 19^th century. Elmer Flick played from 1898-1910, which is right in the heart of the dead ball era. He would rank 10^th all-time in RCAA for the period from 1890 to 1919. Not much doubt these guys all belong in the HoF anyway you want to cut it. That leaves 19 players.

Jackie Robinson, Larry Doby, and Roy Campanella would be classified as players who were pioneers in breaking the race barrier. Campanella also suffered a catastrophic spinal injury in a car wreck that ended his career. Campy finished at 16^th in career RCAA as a catcher despite not reaching the majors until age 26 and having his career ended by injury. In his ten years he won 3 MVP awards. His career is dominated by three separated seasons where he piled up all his value. Robinson is a legend but his 308 RCAA would make him a top ten 2B if all his playing time had been at second. Doby, a very good player, probably would not be in the HoF without the "pioneer" thing. We are down to 16 players.

There are only four players effected by WWII: DiMaggio, Greenberg, Arky Vaughn, and Phil Rizzuto. Joe and Hank have already been taken care of. Arky Vaughn looked about done when the war started, but he still lost his age 32-34 seasons. Amongst HoFers he is consider the 2^nd greatest SS of all time and his 478 RCAA at a defense-first position supports that. Now we come to a real problem child: Phil Rizzuto. Phil’s career RCAA is –10 (yes, negative). He also has negative OPS versus the league and a losing OPW. His best five-year period for RCAA totals 31. He did win a more-or-less defensible MVP award and was considered a premier defensive SS. He also lost his age 25-27 seasons to the war. Personally, I don’t know how he is in the HoF, but I am sure it wasn’t on peak value. This reduces us to 14 players.

The only other "excuse" to take care of is injury/illness. Kirby Puckett and Ross Youngs are the only two who got into the HoF this way. Had Puckett stayed healthy he would probably have cruised to 3,000 and certain admittance. He also racked up six gold gloves and seven times finished in the top ten in the MVP voting. His best five-year period for RCAA totaled a respectable 167 RCAA. Very good, but even if he has a ten-year period of 334 RCAA he probably doesn’t make the HoF on peak value. The voters gave him the benefit of the doubt due to his career ending detached retina injury. Ross Youngs is a much sadder case. He was stricken with Bright’s disease in his age 28 season. Up to that point he had racked up 249 RCAA. This is a superb total for an eight-year player. Despite his illness he managed to complete that season and one more before dying. He definitely got in due to his premature death and John McGraw’s statement that Youngs was "his greatest outfielder". We are now down to 12 players.

Now we can look at players who are in the top ten in RCAA for their position prior to 1990. This includes Frank "Home Run" Baker, Mickey Cochrane, Bill Terry and Tony Lazzeri. Most people have Baker and Cochrane on their "no-doubt" list so we will look at Terry and Lazzeri more closely. In the range of 400 – 499 RCAA there are 32 players. Eighteen are in the HoF, nine are not, and five are active (Walker, Giambi, Piazza, Chipper, and Arod.  At 425 RCAA Terry sits precisely between Sherry Magee and Norm Cash who are not in the HoF. Terry’s best five-year peak value is 269 RCAA in a 14-year career. Magee totaled 231 RCAA in the best five-year period of his 16-year career. Cash’s best five years totaled 215 RCAA in a 17-year career. Terry did his work in the 1920’s and 30’s. Magee is a dead ball guy and Cash is a 1960’s guy. Of these players Terry best fits a peak value guy. He had a slightly shorter career with a better five years than those two.

So one could argue that he is in the HoF because his peak value was better than Magee’s and Cash’s. But, what do we do about the other non-HoFers with 400 or more RCAA? These players are Pete Rose (Ineligible), Fred McGriff (486/233/18 seasons), Harry Stovey (485/233/14 seasons, Will Clark (473/240/15 seasons), Mike Tiernan (466/275/14 seasons), Bob Johnson (413/183/13 seasons), and George Gore (401/221/14 seasons). So, maybe, 400+ RCAA with a 260+ peak is the ticket. But, then what do we do with Mike Tiernan? He’s 19th century guys who racked up 466/275 in a 13 year career. Also, Jason Giambi will be up for election someday and there are no drum rolls for his candidacy at this time but he is at 445/389. Terry, most likely, is in because he hit .400 one season and Frankie Frisch liked him.

As an aside, I would like to note if breaking 500 RCAA gives a player a 93% chance of making the HoF then hitting 400+ RCAA gives a player a 67% chance of making it.

There are four second base men with more RCAA than Lazzeri who are not in the HoF. Cupid Childs and Fred Dunlap played in the 19^th century and Larry Doyle played in the dead ball era. All three of those guys played from 12 to 14 years. All three had five-year peaks better than Lazzeri’s.  The fourth player is Bobby Grich. Grich played 17 seasons and his best five-year peak was 125 RCAA. Maybe Lazzeri’s peak is just enough to nudge him ahead of Grich, but I don’t think so. Certainly Lazzeri is not a bad HoFer or a mistake, but being part of Murderer’s Row was more important to his getting elected to the HoF than peak value. Of the first 15 players only one has looked like a real peak-value guy.

Does anyone think Bobby Doerr got in on peak value? He had a career 96 RCAA. He had two seasons in which he totaled 82 RCAA and they were separated by two seasons in which he accumulated –11 RCAA. Then there is Freddy Lindstrom. Anyone thinking a 3B/OF with a career 84 RCAA and a peak value of 108 RCAA is an HoFer is simply deluded. Joe Sewell racked up 134 career RCAA and 101 of them were in five consecutive seasons. Kind of looks like a guy who might be a peak value guy if you only look at shortstops. Not sure Joe belongs in the HoF, but he is not an embarrassment. Vern Stephens has slightly better career and peak numbers as an SS, though. Five to go.

Four of these guys are outfielders who played from 1920 – 1941. They and their respective career RCAA’s and peak values are Chick Hafey (244/205), Earle Combs (307/203), Hack Wilson (367/300), and Earl Averill (391/222). We can drop Hafey because he is simply a mistake. Averill’s peak pretty much mirrored the remainder of his career so peak value shouldn’t be a motivator in putting him in the HoF. His 391 RCAA puts him in a cluster of guys who as likely as not got elected to the HoF. Combs certainly had five nice seasons and seven decent seasons. His 307 RCAA is in a cluster of guys who are not for the most part in the HoF. So maybe 200+ RCAA in five years can be meaningful for outfielders with short careers and at least 300 RCAA. This, of course, means Hack Wilson was a mortal lock with a peak value of 300 RCAA.

The problem with this thought is Charlie Keller 396/281, Albert Belle 379/281 and Babe Herman 391/271. There are also numerous players from the 19^th century who would qualify under the "Combs Standard" who aren’t in. Once again we run into no peak value standard to hang our hat on that wouldn’t get the player in on the career effort basis.

The last guy is Ralph Kiner who you might think is the poster child for peak value. In a ten year career he posted an RCAA of 434 with 334 of it packed into five seasons. Now that’s peak value. Every non-active outfielder with 400 RCAA is in the HoF, except for Bob Johnson and Sherry Magee. I think one can conclude Ralph would be in on career quality anyway, but his peak value is truly monstrous. An interesting comparison is Kiner and Sammy Sosa. Sosa also has a staggering peak value of 337 RCAA, but has only another 11 RCAA to show for his career. I guess from this you might conclude that if you are an outfielder and can rack up 300 RCAA in five years you are going to the HoF.

So, after looking at these players it seems only Kiner and Terry fit the model of a peak value honoree. Both of their career values put them in the 67% range for enshrinement, so they might have gotten in anyway.

Anyway, after all this writing it seems like there has been no standard for peak value getting a position player into the HoF. I am not so sure one should be set. I have a hard time separating what does it matter whether a player has five consecutive great seasons or whether the five seasons are separated for some reason.