[leftsaidfred]

I found my copy of the '05 edition of Baseball Propsectus, and it was pretty interesting to flip through it. In the back, where they have a few articles each year, they include a list of their top 50 prospects (not to mention a vicious hatchet job on MLB's handling of the Expos and the subsequent move to DC).

Anyway, here's the top 50 and the honorable mention.

1. Andy Marte - Well, this didn't work out.

BaseballGraphs did a little write-up on him, and said "It wouldn’t be the first time the Indians got rid of a 24-year-old busted prospect right before he put things together." I wonder how accurate that is.
2. Delmon Young - BP labeled him the worst .290 hitter in history after last year, when he reached that mark with little in the way of walks, power or defense. Still young, so maybe something'll happen.
3. Felix Hernandez - Not quite King Felix, but he could still pull it off. I hope it does happen; he'll be great to watch.
4. Dallas McPherson - He's 28 and without a major league job. I think it's fair to call this a bust.
5. Casey Kotchman - He's turned into a solid player, but he's definitely not the fifth best on this list. Still, I'd say he paid off on some level, which is better than at least two guys on this list so far.
6. Ian Stewart - Pretty good guy who's following the Chone Figgins career path of a super-utility guy, just without the loads of speed.
7. Joel Guzman - Bust, stuck in the Nats system
8. Prince Fielder - You may have heard of him. There's reason to worry that 2007 was his peak, but if he just does 2008 over and over, he worked out just fine.
9. Daric Barton - A terrible 2008 pretty much buried him. He's just 23, though.
10. Jeremy Reed - It's his age 28 year, and he's stuck on the Seattle bench. There's reason to believe he could be better than a fourth outfielder if he got out of the Emerald City, but who knows how likely that is with the Mets. Depth-wise, it's not looking good without an injury.
11. Jeff Francis - A really good pitcher, victimized by injuries in '08.
12. Carlos Quentin - Good hitter, bad boxer.
13. Eric Duncan - Super bust. Should have been moved by the Yankees when they had the chance, but hindsight is etc.
14. Scott Kazmir - If he can stay healthy, he'll really be special. As he is, he's already special, but just 25 times a year.
15. Yusmeiro Petit - Not quite there yet, but there's still hope.
16. Jered Weaver - A solid middle of the rotation type, but definitely not the ace anyone thought he was coming up.
17. Michael Aubrey - Derailed by injuries, there's still a glimmer of hope based off his minor league lines, but at age 27, that's all he has - a glimmer.
18. Chris Burke - Bust, aided by the Craig Biggio retirement tour. Will some day be part of a Ken Burns documentary on how the Astros destroyed themselves in the late 00s.
19. Lastings Milledge - Man, who even knows. More tools than a Lowe's, but who knows if he can put them together. He was sent down to AAA after a slow start this year with the Nats; hopefully, he'll be traded from Washington, because they sure don't need another outfielder.

Let me just say I don't know what he's done to get his reputation as a bad apple. He appeared in a rap song, which was dumb, and pissed off Billy Wagner, which probably doesn't take much, but it's not like he's doing Albert Belle behavior. He's cocky, but guess what? He's an amazing athlete in his early 20s. Being cocky isn't exactly surprising.

20. Chad Billingsley - Ace of a decent Dodgers staff. Not really an ace yet, but could get there.
21. Ian Kinsler - Darn good 2B for Texas.
22. Edwin Encarnacion - Has a bad rep defensively, but few others can swing the stick like he.
23. Brandon McCarthy - At age 25, we're still waiting for the payoff. Being a fly ball guy in Texas will not help.
24. Hanley Ramirez - Looking back, Ramirez is definitely not just the 24th best player on this list (imagine a parallel universe where this statement would be true!). Shouldn't be at short, but he's at least unlikely to hit Keith Olbermann's mother.
25. Anthony Reyes - Middle-to-back of the rotation kind of guy. I think he got a raw deal in St. Louis, but let's not turn that into him being great.
26. Nick Swisher
27. Jeff Francoeur
28. Matt Cain
29. Dan Meyer
30. Curtis Granderson
31. Adam Miller
32. Brian Anderson
33. Gavin Floyd
34. Willy Aybar
35. Jeremy Hermida
36. Rickie Weeks
37. Richie Gardner
38. Ryan Howard
39. Cole Hamels
40. Jose Capellan
41. Guillermo Quiroz
42. Joe Blanton
43. Jesse Crain
44. Brian McCann
45. Edwin Jackson
46. Jason Kubel
47. Kyle Davies
48. Josh Willingham
49 (tie) Mitch Einertson
49 (tie) Dustin Pedroia

Honorables:

Russ Adams
Garrett Atkins
Josh Barfield
Zach Duke
Jonny Gomes
Angel Guzman
JJ Hardy
Conor Jackson
Josh Kroeger
Kendry Morales
Dioner Navarro
Chad Orvella
Omar Quintanilla
Jason Stokes
Huston STreet

I'll add in commentary a little bit at a time, but I'm sure we all know how most of these have worked out. Despite the bad #1, BP did a pretty solid job with this.

[JamesI]

Where's Markakis? He was in AA in 2005, he should make this list. He's way better than almost every name here.

[leftsaidfred]

I'll check when I get a chance.

[leftsaidfred]

Markakis had 205 at bats in Aberdeen and 355 in Delmarva, both A ball, so he didn't have a whole lot of a track record. The write up on him was optimistic, though.

[JamesI]

Markakis had 205 at bats in Aberdeen and 355 in Delmarva, both A ball, so he didn't have a whole lot of a track record. The write up on him was optimistic, though.

ok, I understand. Its just they rated Weiters so high before he ever played in the minors I was surprised they didn't do the same for Nick.

[leftsaidfred]

It's possible Markakis was thought to be a solid outfielder prospect, but definitely not the top ten outfielder that he is today. I can't confirm, though, due to the book not being one listing a player's comparables.

[leftsaidfred]

Re: Markakis

This comment from the '06 Prospectus should explain his absence from the list, JamesI.

Scouts have always been high on Markakis, and it`s easy to understand why: He`s got a sweet swing, a cannon of an arm, and decent speed. Until busting out at Bowie last year, though, his production hadn`t matched the hype. He has been an extremely prolific doubles hitter so far, averaging 45 per 600 at-bats where an average player would only hit 31, so the power potential is there. He`s still on schedule for a late September cameo, but to stick, those doubles will have to presage some home runs.

Did another five guys.

[WiredTiger]

The number of players in the top 50 I'd take right now before Curtis Granderson is very very small.